Petroleum Science >2016, Issue 3: 604-624 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-016-0105-6
Where is the future of China’s biogas? Review, forecast,and policy implications Open Access
文章信息
作者：Lei Gu,Yi-Xin Zhang,Jian-Zhou Wang,Gina Chen and Hugh Battye
作者单位：
1 College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;2 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;3 School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China;4 School of Law, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60611, USA;5 School of History and Culture, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 6 Department of Economics, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, UK
投稿时间：2016-03-12
引用方式：Gu, L., Zhang, YX., Wang, JZ. et al. Pet. Sci. (2016) 13: 604. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-016-0105-6
文章摘要
This paper discusses the history and present
status of different categories of biogas production in China,
most of which are classified into rural household production,
agriculture-based engineering production, and industry-
based engineering production. To evaluate the future
biogas production of China, five models including the
Hubbert model, the Weibull model, the generalized Weng
model, the H–C–Z model, and the Grey model are applied
to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each
province and the entire country. It is proved that those
models which originated from oil research can also be
applied to other energy sources. The simulation results
reveal that China’s total biogas production is unlikely to
keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years, mainly
due to a recent decrease in rural household production, and
this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official
department. In addition, China’s biogas production will
present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future.
This paper will give preliminary explanation for the
regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose
some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies
and strategies to promote the development of the
biogas industry in China.
status of different categories of biogas production in China,
most of which are classified into rural household production,
agriculture-based engineering production, and industry-
based engineering production. To evaluate the future
biogas production of China, five models including the
Hubbert model, the Weibull model, the generalized Weng
model, the H–C–Z model, and the Grey model are applied
to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each
province and the entire country. It is proved that those
models which originated from oil research can also be
applied to other energy sources. The simulation results
reveal that China’s total biogas production is unlikely to
keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years, mainly
due to a recent decrease in rural household production, and
this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official
department. In addition, China’s biogas production will
present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future.
This paper will give preliminary explanation for the
regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose
some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies
and strategies to promote the development of the
biogas industry in China.
关键词
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Biogas production China Temporal–spatial Forecast Policy